Seasonal hiring 2026: what the data says, and what to do before January

Seasonal hiring in 2026 depends on where you look. Retail is forecast to add fewer holiday workers than last year, while overall seasonal job postings are up and job seekers are searching for seasonal work at a much faster clip than employers are posting it.

That mix gives employers more applicants to choose from this season. But the data also shows something more compelling: employers aren't just looking to fill a holiday gap. They're auditioning future full-time employees. Could employers who invest in those new hires now, rather than in January, be the ones who keep them?

Let's examine some of the seasonal hiring trends that are emerging for the holiday period this year.

Is seasonal hiring up or down in 2026?

Yes.

Real answer: it depends on the industry.

One thing that seems clear at this point is that retail is pulling back. Challenger, Gray & Christmas forecasts that U.S. retailers will add about 450,000 seasonal jobs in Q4 2026, down 2.5% from 461,500 last year. That follows a 2025 season that was already the smallest seasonal retail gain since 2008. Many retailers are leaning on existing staff and on-demand labor pools instead of announcing big seasonal waves.

But outside of retail, the picture looks stronger:

• Seasonal postings are up. Indeed Hiring Lab data shows seasonal job postings running about 10% above 2025 and about 7% above 2019 (HR Dive).
• Service businesses are hiring more. 45% of service-industry hiring managers expect to hire more seasonal workers than last year, compared to 38% of hiring managers overall (Express Employment Professionals and The Harris Poll).
• Warehouse work is growing. Warehouse roles now make up about 9% of seasonal postings, up from 3.5% in 2019. Retail's share has slipped to 61%, down from about two-thirds.

The takeaway for HR teams: your season depends on your industry. A retailer and a fulfillment center may be living in two different labor markets this quarter.

Do employers have the upper hand this season?

On volume, yes. Desktop searches for seasonal jobs are up 28% year over year, according to Indeed. More people want seasonal work than last year, and in retail especially, there are fewer openings to go around. Most employers should expect bigger applicant pools.

But a bigger pool doesn't necessarily translate to an easier hire. Indeed economist Cory Stahle points out that employers still have to compete for the best candidates, and that pay transparency, scheduling, and a visible path to advancement are what set offers apart. He suggests that employers looking to fill seasonal roles should start early.

In other words, it's looking easier to fill a seasonal slot this year. But it might not be any easier to land the person you'd hope to keep in the new year.

Why should employers think of seasonal jobs like tryouts?

Increasingly, that's what they are.

According to the Express Employment Professionals and Harris Poll survey, 87% of hiring managers see seasonal roles as a great way to identify future full-time hires. And 44% of companies that hire seasonally say finding employees they can bring on full-time is one of their reasons for doing it in the first place.

Large employers are already acting on this. Indeed found that by the end of September 2025, 34% of large-employer job postings were explicitly labeled seasonal. In 2026, that number dropped to about 20%, while part-time postings rose from 38% to 49%. Those part-time roles are presumably year-round, which suggests some employers expect demand to hold well into 2027.

If full-time or year-round hires are part of the equation for 2027, it makes sense for businesses to look at this seasonal period as a trial of sorts. Resources invested in a new hire in November don't automatically need to be lost by the first of January. It just comes down to the right fit, and this quarter can be a helpful way for businesses to come to that decision.

What do seasonal workers actually want?

Mostly, a paycheck that shows up when they need it. Seasonal work spikes during times of higher demand, and many of those workers are also consumers hoping to stack extra cash before the holidays. But it's also an opportunity for workers to drive skills growth or break into a new industry.

Among job seekers who have worked a seasonal job, 72% say they did it for financial reasons (Express Employment Professionals and The Harris Poll). That includes:

• 43% who wanted more money for daily expenses
• 43% who wanted to add to their savings
• 25% who wanted help buying gifts

More than half (54%) also cite professional development, like building experience or learning new skills. Like the businesses that employ them, seasonal workers are looking ahead at their next year and beyond.

But even if both parties would like to keep their eyes to the future, reality is focused on the here and now. Many seasonal workers take the job to cover expenses in the immediate term, this the most expensive stretch of the year for many people. For someone who's considering the job because rent, groceries, and gifts are due this month, a two-week (or longer) wait for payday can be the difference between choosing you and taking the next offer.

How can employers keep the seasonal hires they want?

Hire like it's a full-time role

If 87% of hiring managers see seasonal work as a pipeline, screen like it. Look for reliability, coachability, and interest in staying, not just availability through the end of December. Tell candidates up front that seasonal roles can lead to permanent ones. It's one of the clearest ways to stand out to the applicants with the most options.

Invest in seasonal hires from week one

Seasonal workers often get the shortest onboarding and the fewest benefits. That makes sense if they're here for six weeks but becomes a problem if you want them to stay. Give them the same introduction to your culture, managers, and benefits you'd give a full-time hire. The ones who feel like part of the team are the ones who opt-in when full or part-time roles open in January. For more ways to keep good people, see our guide to five simple tools to improve employee retention.

Give them access to the wages they've already earned

Seasonal workers tell us what they need: money for daily expenses, on time. Earned wage access, also called on-demand pay, lets employees access a portion of the wages they've already worked for before payday, instead of waiting out a full pay cycle.

For seasonal hires, that matters most in the first few weeks, when the gap between starting work and getting paid hits hardest. It's also a benefit candidates can see in a job posting, which helps when you're competing for the best applicants in a crowded pool.

And it can be an easy add for HR. Tapcheck is offered at zero cost to employers and works with your existing payroll, so your payroll team keeps full control with no change to your pay cycle. Employees transfer their earned wages through the app, and your payroll runs as usual. Employers report an average 31% drop in turnover after adopting Tapcheck.

Make the path to full-time visible

Don't make your best seasonal workers guess. Tell them early which roles are opening up after the holidays, what you're looking for, and how to raise their hand. A clear path keeps strong performers from job hunting in December.

What does this mean for your seasonal hiring plan?

The 2026 data tells a clear story. Seasonal hiring is uneven, applicants have fewer options in some industries, and employers have more choice than they did a few years ago. But the employers who win this season won't be the ones who hire the most people. They'll be the ones who hire the right people and give them reasons to stay.

That starts before the first shift ends. Hire for the long run, invest early, and make sure the people who showed up for a paycheck can actually get to it.